Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
